EUR/GBP

Look at the 4h chart:

We can see a downtrend triangle formation form.

EP=0.8859 SL=0.8968 TP=0.8641 TS=100

Look at the 4hour chart:

We can see that over the pass week of uptrend, we can see the volatility had been decreasing forming a triangle formation.
Nice breakout will form and there is a possibilty that this downtrend will hit 1.3125 before deciding the next direction.

EP=1.3281 TP=1.3038 SL=1.3402 TS=120

Update on my trades

Current Trade..

EUR/GBP
EP= 0.8859 SL=0.8968 TP=0.8641 TS=100

EUR/JYP
EP=131.80 SL=131.00 TP=127.63 TS=130
Confirm profit of 80 pips

EUR/USD
EP=1.3281 SL=1.3402 TP=1.3038 TS=120

The only mistake here is that i should not expose so much of my capital on EUR alone....

Nice breakout from the triangle. Due to the stress test and ECB rate cuts on Thursday May 7, trader risk appitide since to have change. Even thought many analysis had been specualting that the crisis had bottom, personally i do not agree with what they say.

I believe that there wouldnt be much movement til May7 when the banks interest rate cut decision and Bank stress test are release...

EUR/JYP triangle formation

Look at the 1 hour chart of EUR/JYP

Look like a triangle formation is form...
Actually i favor bearish of EUR This could be a opportunity for the correction of the previous gain.
Remember to wait for another hour candle then enter the trade.. to confirm a downtrend breakout instead of a false break out...

EP = 131.80 TP = 127.63 SL= 132.50 or 132.80 TS=70-100

Strategy for the week

Base on COT direction:

Long Short
JYP 54,7% GBP 69.65%
EUR 51%
NZD 80.1%
AUD 68.4%
USD 81.3%

Looking for :
EUR/USD bearish
GBP/USD strong bearish
AUD/USD bearish
NZD/USD Flat
EUR/JYP Flat
GBP/JYP bearish
USD/JYP bullish

EUR/USD
Base on the market sentiment from the COT report, we are looking at a bearish outlook for EUR.
For this week, the major news that would impact this currency pair are:
- Release of the result for the Bank stress test
- looks goods but personally i feel there must be a reason for delaying the release of the report.
- Tue May 5 GMT 1400 USD ISM Non-manufacturing Composite
- Increase ...
- Thu May 7 GMT 1145 EUR ECB rate decision
- there could be a interest rate cut to 1%
- Fri May 8 GMT 1230 USD Non-farm payroll
- expect to be better then last month

In terms of Fundamental analysis, the outlook of USD is bullish and due to the interest rate cut, EUR is in line of a bearish outlook.

In terms of techinical analysis, the outlook for EUR/USD remain the same.


Last week correction wasnt able to break throught the 61.8% fibonacci correction.
I suggest to sell at
EP = 1.3235 SL = 1.3400 TP = 1.2905 TS = 150

EUR/JYP
The COT report suggest a flat market. Base on fundamental analysis, EUR is suffering from the worst economic crisis. And highly possible that ECB would cut rates. I suggest wait for clearer signal of down trend...


GBP/USD
The COT suggest a bearish structure on this pairing. But fundamentally, GBP does not have a bearish outlook.

Techincally:


A flat could be forming in the D1 chart. i suggest wait for a clearer sign before entering this pair.
If a 5 wave downtrend is building up, wait for the correction of the 2nd wave before selling this pair...

GBP/JYP

Had build up a triangle formation:


This is the one hour chart. The triangle formation was from after ytd flat movement.
Currently it looks like going to a downtrend.
I suggest:
Sell stop:
EP = 147.77 SL = 148.55 TS = 80 TP = 142.92 (fibonacci correction of 61.8)

Big events next week

TUE May 5th GMT 430 Expected Previous
AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision 3.00% 3.00%

Wed May 6th GMT 2245 Expected Previous
NZD Unemployment Rate 5.3% 4.7%

Thu May 7th Expected Previous
GMT 1100 GBP Bank of england Rate Decision 0.5% 0.5%

GMT 1145 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.00% 1.25%

GMT 1230 USD Non-farm Productivity 0.9% -0.4%

Fri May 8th
GMT 1230 USD Change in NonFarm Payroll -620k -660k
GMT 1230 USD Unemployment Rate 8.9% 8.5%

COT STATUS as of 28/04/09

We can somehow get the market sentiment throught the COT report.

BRITISH POUND STERLING - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE                 Code-096742
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 04/28/09                         |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
   NON-COMMERCIAL      |   COMMERCIAL    |      TOTAL      |   POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG  | SHORT  |SPREADS |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF GBP 62,500)                            OPEN INTEREST:       84,760
COMMITMENTS
17,702   40,615        8   55,752   23,022   73,462   63,645   11,298   21,115

CHANGES FROM 04/21/09 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST:      1,381)
2,088      841      -27     -239     -802    1,822       12     -441    1,369

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
 20.9     47.9      0.0     65.8     27.2     86.7     75.1     13.3     24.9

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS:       56)
   12       21        1       15       15       28       36

The market favors Short in GBP:
Non-Commercial standing .. 17,702 long - 40,615 short = 22,913 short
Percent of 40,615/(17,702+40,615) = 69.65% short

JAPANESE YEN - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE                           Code-097741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 04/28/09                         |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
   NON-COMMERCIAL      |   COMMERCIAL    |      TOTAL      |   POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG  | SHORT  |SPREADS |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF JPY 12,500,000)                        OPEN INTEREST:       75,734
COMMITMENTS
22,162   26,741      239   36,138   28,240   58,539   55,220   17,195   20,514

CHANGES FROM 04/21/09 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST:      1,519)
3,819   -5,297       25   -3,891    8,233      -47    2,961    1,566   -1,442

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
 29.3     35.3      0.3     47.7     37.3     77.3     72.9     22.7     27.1

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS:       69)
   19       26        7       17       16       42       43

The market favors Long in JYP:
Non-Commercial standing .. 22,162 long - 26,741 short = 4579 short
Percent of 26,741/(22,162+26,741) = 54.7% long

EURO FX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE                                Code-099741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 04/28/09                         |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
   NON-COMMERCIAL      |   COMMERCIAL    |      TOTAL      |   POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG  | SHORT  |SPREADS |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF EUR 125,000)                           OPEN INTEREST:      108,592
COMMITMENTS
30,292   32,365      256   43,424   41,730   73,972   74,351   34,620   34,241

CHANGES FROM 04/21/09 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST:      1,913)
  584    4,254     -378    1,850   -4,379    2,056     -503     -143    2,416

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
 27.9     29.8      0.2     40.0     38.4     68.1     68.5     31.9     31.5

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS:       98)
   34       29        7       21       24       58       57

The market favors Long in EURO:
Non-Commercial standing .. 30,292long - 32,365 short = 1694 long
Percent of 32,365/(30,292+32,365) = 51% long

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE                     Code-112741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 04/28/09                         |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
   NON-COMMERCIAL      |   COMMERCIAL    |      TOTAL      |   POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG  | SHORT  |SPREADS |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF NZD 100,000)                           OPEN INTEREST:       14,095
COMMITMENTS
4,855    1,207        0    7,800   11,299   12,655   12,506    1,440    1,589

CHANGES FROM 04/21/09 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST:        252)
  317      174        0     -361      169      -44      343      296      -91

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
 34.4      8.6      0.0     55.3     80.2     89.8     88.7     10.2     11.3

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS:       22)
    8        3        0        6        6       14        9

The market favors short in NZD:
Non-Commercial standing .. 4,855 long - 1,207 short = 3648 long
Percent of 4,855/(4,855+1,207) = 80.1% long

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE                      Code-232741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 04/28/09                         |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
   NON-COMMERCIAL      |   COMMERCIAL    |      TOTAL      |   POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG  | SHORT  |SPREADS |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF AUD 100,000)                           OPEN INTEREST:       69,683
COMMITMENTS
25,748    9,056       82   24,159   52,272   49,989   61,410   19,694    8,273

CHANGES FROM 04/21/09 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST:        115)
  -92      466      -57    1,076      340      927      749     -812     -634

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
 37.0     13.0      0.1     34.7     75.0     71.7     88.1     28.3     11.9

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS:       50)
   21        8        2       12       13       34       22

The market favors short in AUD:
Non-Commercial standing .. 25,748 long - 9,056 short = 16,692 long
Percent of 52,272/(24,159+52,272) = 68.4% long

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S.                                 Code-098662
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 04/28/09                         |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
   NON-COMMERCIAL      |   COMMERCIAL    |      TOTAL      |   POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG  | SHORT  |SPREADS |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT  |  LONG  | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(U.S. DOLLAR INDEX X $1000)                          OPEN INTEREST:       22,223
COMMITMENTS
11,700    2,694    2,013    6,791   14,869   20,504   19,576    1,719    2,647

CHANGES FROM 04/21/09 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST:     -1,108)
-1,601      -51      -77    1,341   -1,292     -337   -1,420     -771      312

PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
 52.6     12.1      9.1     30.6     66.9     92.3     88.1      7.7     11.9

NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS:       55)
   25       19        5        8        5       34       28

The market favors short in USD:
Non-Commercial standing .. 11,700 long - 2,694 short = 9006 long
Percent of 11,700/(11,700+2,694) = 81.3% long