Current standing using fibonacci

EUR/USD
Sell!
EP=1.3171 (i should have hope the entry of 1.3200)
SL=1.3151 (break even with a confirm 20pips profit)
TS = 160 (changed my TS because last night had a movement of ard 160pips)
TP = 1.2500 (Forming a triangle on weekly chart)

Currently support level of EUR/USD is 1.2985. Breaking through this barrier, there will be a high possibly to hit the last bottom on 20/04/09 of 1.2890. And further break through 1.2890, it will go closer to the 1.2500 point, as the 3th Elliott wave will be taking shape.

EUR/JYP
Sell!
EP= 128.05
I admit that i am taking a chance on the fundamental analysis which support higher JYP and lower EUR. In terms of fibonacci, it had hit the 38.2% correction (4th wave), therefore i am hoping that this would be the 5th wave.
SL = 127.66 (break even with a confirm 39pips profit)
TS = 250
TP = 122.05 (wave 5 = wave 1 = around 600pips)

The 122.05 is a very safe point to take profit considering 2 points:
This should be the 5th wave downtrend, the movement should be around 600pips similar to 1st wave .
2nd point, if this 5 wave downtrend is a correction for the up trend starting at 112.06 (21/01/09) to 137.40 (06/04/09), the 61.8% correction should be the 121.13 point.
Therefore i can assume that 122.05 is a very safe point for TP.

I AM starting to love EUR/JYP pair, High pips movement, low spread of 4pips and cheaper swap rate!!!!!

NZD/USD
Sell!
EP = 0.5662 (should have enter at 0.5700)
SL = 0.5629 (break even with confirm profit of 33pips)
TS = 85pips change to 120pips
TP = 0.5062

After the correction on 24/04/09 at 0.5716 (close to 61.8%), it looks like the pair is going on a 3th wave downtrend. I am hoping that it would not be a flat market as www.dailyfx.com had predicted yesterday. Breaking through the 0.5486 point will bring the momentum further to my target 0.5062. This point will complete the 335 Elliott wave flat formation (very obvious on the weekly chart).
The only risk to look out for is the RBNZ interest rate decision on April 29. If the interest rate cut is lesser then the expected 50bp, this could cause a rally in NZD/USD.

AUD/USD
Sell!
EP = 0.7197 (0.7200 would be the ideal position haha)
SL = 0.7113 (break even with confirm profit of 84pips)
TS = 100pips change to 130pips
TP = 0.6647

I had a really hard time deciding to enter this trade. The correction for the point from 0.7326 (April 13) to 0.6951 was close to the 78.6% at 0.7237. From the looks of it, a downtrend triangle is forming. if there is a breakout at 0.6950 the chances of hitting the TP of 0.6647 would be high. As there is a possibility that AUD/USD is moving back the the support level of around 0.6500

GBP/JYP
Sell!
EP = 140.71 (should be 141.21 on he 1H chart made this mistake cause i was looking at the 4H chart)
SL = 142.21
TS = 150
TP = 131.55

Take a look at the daily chart :


Looking at the 1Day chart, we can see that there is a very obvious breakout from the trendline form starting from Jan 23th to March 30th.
Base on the breakout, there could be a correction for the uptrend starting from Jan 23th 118.80 to April 6th 151.50. Base on this assumption, i put my TP at the 61.8 correction 131.55 point.
(Update) Just break even on this trade...
Changeing my TS = 200pips since i am aiming for 900pips profit

Out of my 5 trade, 4 had break even and had a confirm profit.

Selling NZD/USD base on RBNZ interest rate decision

We can look for a short position on NZD/USD base on 2 reason

In techinical analysis, we can see that NZD/USD had a correction between the 61.8% and 50% fibonacci correction!


On fundamental analysis, NZD is going to have a rate decision next week. The RBNZD is expected to cut its interest rate by 50bp from 3.00% to 2.50%. In addition, New Zealand credit card spending falls at record-pace in March.
Accordingly, dovish commentary following the rate decision could spark a sell-off in the kiwi-dollar but nevertheless, as risk trends continue to dictate price action in the financial markets, the G7 and the G20 meeting in Washington D.C. may help to boost market sentiment as global policymakers tackle the downturn in the world economy, and increased demands for higher risk/reward investments could the currency pair higher over the following week.

I suggest 2 ways of entering this trade:
Risk taker:
Put a Sell limit pending order on the 61.8% fibonacci correction
EP = 0.5760 SL = 0.5880 TP = 0.5213(fibonacci gain of 100%) or 0.5043(fibonacci gain of 161.8%) TS = 100 - 200pips

Confirm downtrend:
Put a Sell Stop pending order below the 50% fibonacci correction
EP = 0.5700 SL = 0.5880 TP = 0.5213(fibonacci gain of 100%) or 0.5043(fibonacci gain of 161.8%) TS = 150 - 200pips

The first idea take more risk as it could turn into a uptrend, but you would have a addition 60pips gain. Personally i prefer the 2nd idea. Enter late Exit early.
This would be a great chance to trade since we will be riding the 3th eillot wave downtrend.

Recommended Sell short position on AUD/USD

Looking at the AUZ/USD chart:
I suggest a sell short position base on 2 factors:



Looking at this 1H chart i could see a downtrend triangle formation.



In addition, base on fibonacci correction, the pair had a correction of 50% (2nd wave) in place.In order to confirm a downtrend breakout, i suggest to place a sell Stop position on the 38.2% correction position.
If a downtrend breakout is in place, this could be a start of the 3wave down.

Sell stop
EP=0.7090 SL= 0.7140 (50pips) TP= 0.6723 (3th wave 161.8%) SL=50(at the start)- 150(after break even)

This is the only consideration, AUD and NZD have similar correlations in movement, NZD had hit its 38.2% correction 2times! The downtrend in AUD could trigger NZD downtrend, similarity if NZD go deeper into correction, AUD could go into a further correction of 61.8%.

Pair relationship

After analysing the currency market for the pass 4 months i realize that there are similar relationships between certain currency pairs.

For example, these pass few days the currency pairs EUR/USD and EUR/JYP seem to behave in a similar movement. The downtrend movement, correction, and also the formation of triangle breakout.

Even thought the correction wasnt simliar in terms of fibonacci 61.8% or 50% correction but, it the movement is similar.

I am still looking into the relationship, things like determining the TP SL maybe interrelated.


This forex mountain is really difficult to climb but its my dream my ideal dream in my life so i going to pursult no matter what, and climb this damm mountain till i die !!!!!

Correction of EUR/USD

EUR/USD seem to be in a uptrend



This could be a correction of the 1st wave from the downtrend starting from 14/04/09 to 20/04/09. The 1H EMA and Parabolic show uptrend, 4H Parabolic Uptrend
Targeting the take profit from the 3th wave by selling at this position
EP= 1.3200 - 13165 SL = 1.3305 TP = 1.2765 TS = 120-150pips

Testing triangle on EUR/JYP

EUR/JYP
is going a correction from the gain 14/04/09 to 20/04/09



For this downtrend, the correction had been 50% fibonacci, traders can take this chance to trade this shorting chance at
Sell
EP= 130.16 SL = 131.50 TP=124.50

If you want to trade the correction, there seems to be a breakout in triangle formation



Buy
EP = 128.15 SL=126.80 (in case of a reverse breakout) TP=130.14
1H EMA and Parabolic show uptrend , 4H Parabolic show uptrend

EUR/JYP breaking trendline, correction from Jan gain?

EUR/JYP pairing had been going on a up trend for the pass few months.
(starting on 21/01/09)
Last friday, it has finially break throught the uptrend trendline.
This signify a downtrend break through, and a possiblibly that this could be a correction from the gain starting on Jan.

Base on the fibonacci golden rule of 61.8%, the correction target should be around the range of 121.83 +/- 200pips.