Last week movement had be rather choppy and unclear.
But the report that came out rather define a certain direction on those major currency
EUR
Eur outlook doesn't seems to be good due to poorer then expected GDP and interested rate cuts.
This week there isnt much report coming out one EUR.
Furthermore Eur wasnt able to break the high on 09/03/2009 of 1.3737. Could this be a sign of downtrend..? I believe that the weight of the GDP report will carry over to this week.
There could be a possibility that EUR/USD is heading back to the 1.25 region.. or going back to the 13800 1.4 region.. This i believe would have to depend on USD strength
GBP
GBP/USD had been really choppy last week. Fundamentally i feel that GBP is still in a load of problems. This week, lots of report coming would sure spark high volatility in GBP pairs.
TUE May 19
GMT 830
GBP consumer price Index (MoM) Expected 2.4% previous 2.9%
GBP consumer price Index (YoY) Expected 1.6% previous 1.7%
Retail price that release same time may affect the market too
Wed May 20
GMT 830
GBP Bank of England Minutes
Fri May 22
GMT 830
GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Expected -1.9% Previous -1.9%
GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Expected -4.1% Previous -4.1%
I dont the the GBP will be expected values. Be sure to see big big movement if the actual result is different from the expected.
USD
Last week the worst then expected retail result had created doubt on the recovering status of US economy. People are debating the position of the safe heaven curreny for USD. Not much economical data will be releasing next week, but lots of meeting and speach by big man!
I guess the most interesting one would be on
Wed May 20
GMT 1800 USD Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes
This week, usd should have a one sided movement, either up or down.
AUD and NZD
Both currency are droping for the pass 2 weeks. Could this be a sign of a top on both currency?
Fundamentally, aud seems to be recover way better then other currency. As for NZD, it doesnt look good.
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