Monday, May 11, 2009




The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a specific number of weeks (either 52 or 13). A reading close to 0 suggests that a bottom is forming and a reading close to 100 suggests that a top is forming. The readings are for the actual currency, not the currency pair. For example, a reading of 100 on the Canadian Dollar suggests that the Canadian Dollar is close to a top (USDCAD close to a bottom).

Readings of 95 and higher as well as 5 and lower are in boldfaced red type to indicate potential market extremes. For example, an increasing index is bullish until the index is extreme (near 100), at which time the risk of a reversal or pause in the trend increases.

Base on the COT, we could look for reserval on

AUD/USD bullish turn bearish
GBP/USD bullish turn bearish
NZD/USD bullish turn bearish
EUR/USD bullish turn bearish

USD/CAD bearish turn bullish
USD/CHF bearish turn bullish

USD/JYP Mix

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