Strategy for the week

Base on COT direction:

Long Short
JYP 54,7% GBP 69.65%
EUR 51%
NZD 80.1%
AUD 68.4%
USD 81.3%

Looking for :
EUR/USD bearish
GBP/USD strong bearish
AUD/USD bearish
NZD/USD Flat
EUR/JYP Flat
GBP/JYP bearish
USD/JYP bullish

EUR/USD
Base on the market sentiment from the COT report, we are looking at a bearish outlook for EUR.
For this week, the major news that would impact this currency pair are:
- Release of the result for the Bank stress test
- looks goods but personally i feel there must be a reason for delaying the release of the report.
- Tue May 5 GMT 1400 USD ISM Non-manufacturing Composite
- Increase ...
- Thu May 7 GMT 1145 EUR ECB rate decision
- there could be a interest rate cut to 1%
- Fri May 8 GMT 1230 USD Non-farm payroll
- expect to be better then last month

In terms of Fundamental analysis, the outlook of USD is bullish and due to the interest rate cut, EUR is in line of a bearish outlook.

In terms of techinical analysis, the outlook for EUR/USD remain the same.


Last week correction wasnt able to break throught the 61.8% fibonacci correction.
I suggest to sell at
EP = 1.3235 SL = 1.3400 TP = 1.2905 TS = 150

EUR/JYP
The COT report suggest a flat market. Base on fundamental analysis, EUR is suffering from the worst economic crisis. And highly possible that ECB would cut rates. I suggest wait for clearer signal of down trend...


GBP/USD
The COT suggest a bearish structure on this pairing. But fundamentally, GBP does not have a bearish outlook.

Techincally:


A flat could be forming in the D1 chart. i suggest wait for a clearer sign before entering this pair.
If a 5 wave downtrend is building up, wait for the correction of the 2nd wave before selling this pair...

GBP/JYP

Had build up a triangle formation:


This is the one hour chart. The triangle formation was from after ytd flat movement.
Currently it looks like going to a downtrend.
I suggest:
Sell stop:
EP = 147.77 SL = 148.55 TS = 80 TP = 142.92 (fibonacci correction of 61.8)