13th April - 17th April Weekly Strategy

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This is the 2nd week that i post my weeky strategy. I hope more and more people will visit my blog and support me. AND remember click on the advertisement thanks

USD had a bullish fundamental outlook this week. Most of the majors are still leaning on the USD favour. This past week, the FOMC minutes referred to credit conditions as “very tight” and suggested financial markets were “fragile and unsettled” as pressure was intensifying. Banks are refusing to open credit lines as they attempt to bolster reserves as defaults rise, earnings drop and growth naturally leads demand to dry up. This means the potential for another crisis and panic exodus of capital from the market is a constant threat. As long as there are a potential risk of another crisis.As long as the market’s fear the possibility of another crisis, the dollar will be coveted for its deeply liquid markets and the aggressive actions of the US government.

EUR had a bearish fundamental outlook this week. Euro zone are still showing weakness by looking at the upcoming bearish forecast of EURO report. If the economical reports show weaker then expected result, it may link to another interest rate cut in the ECB.

JYP fundamental outlook for this week is incline towards bullish. For the pass week japan economical development had little effect on USD/JYP price. It had been holding the price near 101 mark. Futhermore this week the risky report on US economical report, signal a highly possible decline on USD/JYP.

GBP had a bearish fundamental outlook for this week. Last week Bank of England retain the record low interest rate of 0.5%. From an event risk perspective, there will be very little news on the wires to shake up the UK’s national currency. On Tuesday night at 19:01 ET, the RICS house price balance is forecasted to show that 77 percent of home surveyors saw a decline in prices during March, down from 78 percent in February. On Wednesday at 19:01 ET, the BRC retail sales monitor is likely to show persistently weak consumption on a same-store sales basis as the UK recession continues to put pressure on nearly every aspect of the economy.

AUD had a bearish fundamental outlook. RBA had cut the interest rate by 0.25% to 3.00%. Futhermore the Australian unemployment rate had spike to a 6 year high of 5.7%. Looking at AUD/USD from a technical perspective, the pair has been holding below the October 14, 2008, January, and April highs near 0.7230-0.7270, and a failure at these levels would indicate a triple top. However, if risk appetite continues to improve, AUD/USD could break clear above noted resistance to target the 200 SMA at 0.7373.

NZD had a bearish fundamental outlook. The first quarter business sentiment ticks to a 34year low. Taking stock of the New Zealand economy and benchmark lending rate, the outlook is dim. The local recession is deepening as the collapse in domestic demand fails to fill in the massive gap left by a growing trade gap. A round of economic date will add to the outlook with a forecasted drop in retail sales and discouraging prognosis for the business PMI activity gauge. Every piece of data that pushes the nation deeper into recession will bring it closer to the downgrade in sovereign debt rating that Standard and Poor’s has warned. The other notable influence next week’s round of data will have is on interest rate expectations. RBNZ Governor has suggested his pace of rate cuts going forward would be less aggressive. However, a bleak outlook from the economy could easily force his hand. Should the CPI release due at the end of the week cool more quickly than forecasted, it would remove a significant obstacle to far lower rates.