Friday, April 3, 2009

March US Non Farm payroll

US Non farm payroll is one of the most widely anticipated reports on the US economic calendar, the Employment Situation is a timely report that gives a picture of job creation, loss, wages and working hours in the United States. Data in the report relies on the Household Survey and the Establishment (or Payroll) Survey. While the Household Survey is based on the interviews to US households, the Establishment Survey queries business establishments, making it the preferred source of data. The Employment Situation's has many significant figures such as: Change in Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment, Manufacturing Payrolls, and Average Hourly Earnings.

Yesterday the market raily after the G20 meeting and the ECB interest cut. As optimism spread across investor. Honestly i believe it is all these are just speculation, they are trying to make the market move up before the real news the non farm payroll is release.
All eyes are on the Non Farm Payroll, as the reality will sink in since on friday.

In preparation for trading this top event risk, we need to put it into the context of speculation and consider the impact this employment gauge could have in altering expectations for growth in the US compared to its global counterparts. The more important for forex market price action, though, is that fundamental US data does not tend to have a logical impact on the currency. Instead, risk trends remain in the driver’s seat so traders must consider the impact of NFPs on risk appetite. Indeed, if we see that NFPs fall more than expected or the unemployment rate climbs above 8.5 percent, the news could trigger losses in risky assets like stocks, trigger flight-to-safety, and thus, lift the US dollar, especially against high-yielding currencies like the Australian dollar but perhaps even the euro. On the flip side, if job losses and the unemployment rate don’t climb quite as much as anticipated, the news could spark enough optimism to boost demand for stocks and forex carry trades, and subsequently lead the greenback lower.

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