Weekly strategy and ideas..

Hi guys, i will be trying to post on every week trading opportunity and ideas. I hope some people would put some comment and discuss on it.

Basically i play 7 major currency: AUD NZD JYP GBP EUR USD CHF(seldom touch)
I will be discussing on the movement of each currency and my view of its trend for the week.

AUD had been going up trend for the pass 1 month. Currently the short term trend is looking at a bullish direction if it break the 0.7272 which is the highest point that AUD had gone up on Jan after the economical downturn.
But if it doesn't break that barrier, it could be a starting of a downtrend which would be similar on Jan til Feb.
The focus will be on the RBA interest rate decision on TUE 07/04/09. If you look at Jan data, the downtrend started after 07/01/09. Hmm maybe it is just a coincidence.
Personally i would be more bias toward bearish AUD.

NZD is always simillar to AUD movement. It had been increasing over the pass 5 weeks, furthermore there isnt much economical news on NZD this week.
Meanwhile, a Bloomberg News survey shows that 7 of the 13 economists polled forecast the RBNZ to lower the benchmark interest rate by another 50bp to 2.50%, while the remaining participants are calling for a 25bp rate cut to 2.75%.
I am expect not much movement on NZD or it should somehow follow AZD trend.
There could be some pullback in NZD/USD since it remains overbought.

JYP was the worst performing G10 currency for the pass week's trade. Japan enconomy doesnt look good as japan jobless rate hit 2 year hight, in addition household spending are down for the 11th straight months.
Most likely that Bank of Japan will keep it rate at 0.1% throughtout the year.
But the yen may be vulnerable to a higher technical corrections.
The thing to watch here is the potential impact that the bank’s meeting minutes could have on risk appetite, as indications that BOJ officials have judged that the current economic situation is deteriorating more rapidly than previously anticipated could weigh on the Nikkei, but lift the Japanese yen purely as a result of flight-to-safety.

GBP close last week at 2 months high against USD and 5months high against JYP. But the United Kingdom the worst performing economy in the industrialized world. Furthermore the pass week reports does reflect much of a recovery. In order to see an improvement to the economy and markets, the central bank’s and government’s efforts would be considered a key turn for the better for the pound. Such convictions must also be won by data. The consumer confidence report on Tuesday will gauge the consumer’s contribution to growth. Industrial production and visible trade will gauge the influence of two other major components of GDP
On Thurs 09/04/2009, Bank of England will have an interest rate decision. Even thought currently the interest rate is near zero (0.5%) , it wouldn't be a surprise if there is another interest rate cut. Keep watch on a pullback or bearish GDP this week.

EUR rally with the interest rate decision cut of 25bp which is lower then the expect 50bp. ECB policy officials clearly see the disadvantage of rates near zero, but they are running out of options and time. In his public address, President Trichet suggested the current rate was not necessarily a floor and that the central bank would announce its decision on pursuing unusual policy tools next month. This may include quantitative easing, purchasing additional private debt or any other number of possibilities; but for the euro trader, it will mean conditions in the Euro Zone are just as bad as they are in the United States and United Kingdom. If the upcoming economical data still doesn't show sign of stabilizing, the ECB left with no choice could further cut the interest rate.
In addition EUR wasn't able to make new high, most probability that EUR is still in a bearish condition.