Sorry guys that i wasnt updating my forex blog.
I was taking a rest and reflecting on my trades, tryiny to perfect my trading methods.
Recently i came back to trade. Within 2 week using a capital of 1k i manage to earn 1k. Good ? i guess so lol. Funny thing is that using lesser money to trade, my success rate is higher. Again trading psychology playing a big part in my trading career.
Bigger the money = bigger the GREED and FEAR
This is the reason why some people trade well in demo account of small amount of money, but with it comes to the real thing, dealing with thousand of dollars, it is a totally different world up there.
My advise build with basic, slowly increase your capital.
Remember the trading test, if you are able to go to sleep without worrying the amount that you had put in a trade, that is the correct amount that you should trade now.
The lesser time you spend to analyse the better it will be.
Trust me, basically using all technical analysis and a bit of market sentiment, you do better then knowing everything.
Studying too much analyzes too much only result in confusing yourself, as a result affect your judgement in trading.
On top of all this, i believe experience counts alot.
My 6months of trading is paying off now lol.
Further down the week i will try to squeeze some of my time to update my forex blog on my experience on forex hehe.
Always remember! You may have thousand of strategy, thousand of sure win technique, but without a good trading psychology you are bound to lose.
some ideas that i got on current market:
- EUR is weaking after the crazy gain
- looking for EUR/USD to go back ard 13500 - 12500 range
- GBP still have some potential to gain
- suggest look for uptrend trade, never trade against a trend (dont like counter trend trading)
- USD have be weaking for a period of time.
- looking for some correction on USD
- NZD and AUD still looking strong in terms of fundamental but in terms of technical, i am actually looking for some correction (the gain is way too illogical)
Any question feel free to ask and discuss with me hehe
Monday, June 15, 2009
Sunday, May 17, 2009
18May to 22 May
Last week movement had be rather choppy and unclear.
But the report that came out rather define a certain direction on those major currency
EUR
Eur outlook doesn't seems to be good due to poorer then expected GDP and interested rate cuts.
This week there isnt much report coming out one EUR.
Furthermore Eur wasnt able to break the high on 09/03/2009 of 1.3737. Could this be a sign of downtrend..? I believe that the weight of the GDP report will carry over to this week.
There could be a possibility that EUR/USD is heading back to the 1.25 region.. or going back to the 13800 1.4 region.. This i believe would have to depend on USD strength
GBP
GBP/USD had been really choppy last week. Fundamentally i feel that GBP is still in a load of problems. This week, lots of report coming would sure spark high volatility in GBP pairs.
TUE May 19
GMT 830
GBP consumer price Index (MoM) Expected 2.4% previous 2.9%
GBP consumer price Index (YoY) Expected 1.6% previous 1.7%
Retail price that release same time may affect the market too
Wed May 20
GMT 830
GBP Bank of England Minutes
Fri May 22
GMT 830
GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Expected -1.9% Previous -1.9%
GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Expected -4.1% Previous -4.1%
I dont the the GBP will be expected values. Be sure to see big big movement if the actual result is different from the expected.
USD
Last week the worst then expected retail result had created doubt on the recovering status of US economy. People are debating the position of the safe heaven curreny for USD. Not much economical data will be releasing next week, but lots of meeting and speach by big man!
I guess the most interesting one would be on
Wed May 20
GMT 1800 USD Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes
This week, usd should have a one sided movement, either up or down.
AUD and NZD
Both currency are droping for the pass 2 weeks. Could this be a sign of a top on both currency?
Fundamentally, aud seems to be recover way better then other currency. As for NZD, it doesnt look good.
But the report that came out rather define a certain direction on those major currency
EUR
Eur outlook doesn't seems to be good due to poorer then expected GDP and interested rate cuts.
This week there isnt much report coming out one EUR.
Furthermore Eur wasnt able to break the high on 09/03/2009 of 1.3737. Could this be a sign of downtrend..? I believe that the weight of the GDP report will carry over to this week.
There could be a possibility that EUR/USD is heading back to the 1.25 region.. or going back to the 13800 1.4 region.. This i believe would have to depend on USD strength
GBP
GBP/USD had been really choppy last week. Fundamentally i feel that GBP is still in a load of problems. This week, lots of report coming would sure spark high volatility in GBP pairs.
TUE May 19
GMT 830
GBP consumer price Index (MoM) Expected 2.4% previous 2.9%
GBP consumer price Index (YoY) Expected 1.6% previous 1.7%
Retail price that release same time may affect the market too
Wed May 20
GMT 830
GBP Bank of England Minutes
Fri May 22
GMT 830
GBP Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Expected -1.9% Previous -1.9%
GBP Gross Domestic Product (YoY) Expected -4.1% Previous -4.1%
I dont the the GBP will be expected values. Be sure to see big big movement if the actual result is different from the expected.
USD
Last week the worst then expected retail result had created doubt on the recovering status of US economy. People are debating the position of the safe heaven curreny for USD. Not much economical data will be releasing next week, but lots of meeting and speach by big man!
I guess the most interesting one would be on
Wed May 20
GMT 1800 USD Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes
This week, usd should have a one sided movement, either up or down.
AUD and NZD
Both currency are droping for the pass 2 weeks. Could this be a sign of a top on both currency?
Fundamentally, aud seems to be recover way better then other currency. As for NZD, it doesnt look good.
Monday, May 11, 2009
Head and shoulders USD/JYP
This is the 1D daily chart of USD JYP. According the the release of the COT, a reserval could be on sight..
USD COT index is 0, so either it will remain flat of a reserval toward bullish is going to happen
As for JYP , the index remain 50 same as last week.
The formation could turn into a 5 wave triangle, the strategy is wait for this breakout which should be happening within these few days
The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over a specific number of weeks (either 52 or 13). A reading close to 0 suggests that a bottom is forming and a reading close to 100 suggests that a top is forming. The readings are for the actual currency, not the currency pair. For example, a reading of 100 on the Canadian Dollar suggests that the Canadian Dollar is close to a top (USDCAD close to a bottom).
Readings of 95 and higher as well as 5 and lower are in boldfaced red type to indicate potential market extremes. For example, an increasing index is bullish until the index is extreme (near 100), at which time the risk of a reversal or pause in the trend increases.
Base on the COT, we could look for reserval on
AUD/USD bullish turn bearish
GBP/USD bullish turn bearish
NZD/USD bullish turn bearish
EUR/USD bullish turn bearish
USD/CAD bearish turn bullish
USD/CHF bearish turn bullish
USD/JYP Mix
Sunday, May 10, 2009
BIG event 11/05/09 - 15/05/09
Mon 11 May
GMT
2330
USD Bernanke speaks on Stress Tests at Jekyll Island, Georgia
What this guys comment on the Stress test is going to affect the market... Likely he will say some positive information, and further increase the risk sentiment on the decline of USD and
Tue 12 May
GMT Expected Previous
0600
EUR German Consumer Price index(MOM) 0.0% -0.1%
EUR German Consumer Price index(YOY) 0.7% 0.5
EUR German Consumer Price index- EU 0.0% -0.1%
Harmonised (MOM)
0600
EUR German Consumer Price index- EU 0.0% -0.1%
Harmonised (YOY)
0830
GBP Visible Trade Balance -£7200 -£7315
GBP Total Trade Balance -£3000 -£3248
GBP Total Trade Balance Non EU -£4200 -£3964
1230 USD Trade Balance -$29.2B -$26.0B
2350 JYP Trade Balance - BOP Basis ¥137.1B ¥202.1B
Wed 13 May
GMT Expected Previous
0830
GBP Claimant Count Rate 4.7% 4.5%
GBP Jobless Claims Changes 85K 73.7K
GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 6.9% 6.7%
1230
USD Advance Retail Sales 0.0% -1.2%
USD Retail Sales less auto 0.0% -1.0%
Thurs 14 May
GMT Expected Previous
1230 USD Producer Price index(MoM) 0.1% -1.2%
USD Producer Price index(YoY) -3.9% -3.5%
USD Producer Price index EX Food & 0.1% 0.0%
Energy (MoM)
USD Producer Price index EX Food & 3.4% 3.8%
Energy (YoY)
USD initial Jobless Claims 601k
USD Continuing Claims 6351k
2245
NZD Retail Sales 0.2%
NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto -0.1%
Friday 15 May
GMT Expected Previous
0600
EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ)(1QP) -3.0% -2.1%
EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY)(1QP) -6.0% -1.7%
EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY)(1QP) -6.2% -1.6%
0900
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Dosmestic Product s.a (QoQ)(1QA) -2.1% -1.6%
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Dosmestic Product s.a (YoY)(1QA) -4.1% -1.5%
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.4% 0.4%
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) 0.6% 0.6%
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index-core (YoY) 1.6% 1.5%
1230
USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.0% -0.1%
USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) -0.6% -0.4%
USD Consumer Price Index Ex food & energy(YoY) 0.1% 0.2%
USD Consumer Price Index Ex food & energy(YoY) 1.8% 1.8%
GMT
2330
USD Bernanke speaks on Stress Tests at Jekyll Island, Georgia
What this guys comment on the Stress test is going to affect the market... Likely he will say some positive information, and further increase the risk sentiment on the decline of USD and
Tue 12 May
GMT Expected Previous
0600
EUR German Consumer Price index(MOM) 0.0% -0.1%
EUR German Consumer Price index(YOY) 0.7% 0.5
EUR German Consumer Price index- EU 0.0% -0.1%
Harmonised (MOM)
0600
EUR German Consumer Price index- EU 0.0% -0.1%
Harmonised (YOY)
0830
GBP Visible Trade Balance -£7200 -£7315
GBP Total Trade Balance -£3000 -£3248
GBP Total Trade Balance Non EU -£4200 -£3964
1230 USD Trade Balance -$29.2B -$26.0B
2350 JYP Trade Balance - BOP Basis ¥137.1B ¥202.1B
Wed 13 May
GMT Expected Previous
0830
GBP Claimant Count Rate 4.7% 4.5%
GBP Jobless Claims Changes 85K 73.7K
GBP ILO Unemployment Rate 6.9% 6.7%
1230
USD Advance Retail Sales 0.0% -1.2%
USD Retail Sales less auto 0.0% -1.0%
Thurs 14 May
GMT Expected Previous
1230 USD Producer Price index(MoM) 0.1% -1.2%
USD Producer Price index(YoY) -3.9% -3.5%
USD Producer Price index EX Food & 0.1% 0.0%
Energy (MoM)
USD Producer Price index EX Food & 3.4% 3.8%
Energy (YoY)
USD initial Jobless Claims 601k
USD Continuing Claims 6351k
2245
NZD Retail Sales 0.2%
NZD Retail Sales Ex-Auto -0.1%
Friday 15 May
GMT Expected Previous
0600
EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a (QoQ)(1QP) -3.0% -2.1%
EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a (YoY)(1QP) -6.0% -1.7%
EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a (YoY)(1QP) -6.2% -1.6%
0900
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Dosmestic Product s.a (QoQ)(1QA) -2.1% -1.6%
EUR Euro-Zone Gross Dosmestic Product s.a (YoY)(1QA) -4.1% -1.5%
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.4% 0.4%
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) 0.6% 0.6%
EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index-core (YoY) 1.6% 1.5%
1230
USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) 0.0% -0.1%
USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) -0.6% -0.4%
USD Consumer Price Index Ex food & energy(YoY) 0.1% 0.2%
USD Consumer Price Index Ex food & energy(YoY) 1.8% 1.8%
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
EUR/GBP
Look at the 4h chart:
We can see a downtrend triangle formation form.
EP=0.8859 SL=0.8968 TP=0.8641 TS=100
Look at the 4hour chart:
We can see that over the pass week of uptrend, we can see the volatility had been decreasing forming a triangle formation.
Nice breakout will form and there is a possibilty that this downtrend will hit 1.3125 before deciding the next direction.
EP=1.3281 TP=1.3038 SL=1.3402 TS=120
Update on my trades
Current Trade..
EUR/GBP
EP= 0.8859 SL=0.8968 TP=0.8641 TS=100
EUR/JYP
EP=131.80 SL=131.00 TP=127.63 TS=130
Confirm profit of 80 pips
EUR/USD
EP=1.3281 SL=1.3402 TP=1.3038 TS=120
The only mistake here is that i should not expose so much of my capital on EUR alone....
Nice breakout from the triangle. Due to the stress test and ECB rate cuts on Thursday May 7, trader risk appitide since to have change. Even thought many analysis had been specualting that the crisis had bottom, personally i do not agree with what they say.
I believe that there wouldnt be much movement til May7 when the banks interest rate cut decision and Bank stress test are release...
EUR/GBP
EP= 0.8859 SL=0.8968 TP=0.8641 TS=100
EUR/JYP
EP=131.80 SL=131.00 TP=127.63 TS=130
Confirm profit of 80 pips
EUR/USD
EP=1.3281 SL=1.3402 TP=1.3038 TS=120
The only mistake here is that i should not expose so much of my capital on EUR alone....
Nice breakout from the triangle. Due to the stress test and ECB rate cuts on Thursday May 7, trader risk appitide since to have change. Even thought many analysis had been specualting that the crisis had bottom, personally i do not agree with what they say.
I believe that there wouldnt be much movement til May7 when the banks interest rate cut decision and Bank stress test are release...
EUR/JYP triangle formation
Look at the 1 hour chart of EUR/JYP
Look like a triangle formation is form...
Actually i favor bearish of EUR This could be a opportunity for the correction of the previous gain.
Remember to wait for another hour candle then enter the trade.. to confirm a downtrend breakout instead of a false break out...
EP = 131.80 TP = 127.63 SL= 132.50 or 132.80 TS=70-100
Monday, May 4, 2009
Strategy for the week
Base on COT direction:
Long Short
JYP 54,7% GBP 69.65%
EUR 51%
NZD 80.1%
AUD 68.4%
USD 81.3%
Looking for :
EUR/USD bearish
GBP/USD strong bearish
AUD/USD bearish
NZD/USD Flat
EUR/JYP Flat
GBP/JYP bearish
USD/JYP bullish
EUR/USD
Base on the market sentiment from the COT report, we are looking at a bearish outlook for EUR.
For this week, the major news that would impact this currency pair are:
- Release of the result for the Bank stress test
- looks goods but personally i feel there must be a reason for delaying the release of the report.
- Tue May 5 GMT 1400 USD ISM Non-manufacturing Composite
- Increase ...
- Thu May 7 GMT 1145 EUR ECB rate decision
- there could be a interest rate cut to 1%
- Fri May 8 GMT 1230 USD Non-farm payroll
- expect to be better then last month
In terms of Fundamental analysis, the outlook of USD is bullish and due to the interest rate cut, EUR is in line of a bearish outlook.
In terms of techinical analysis, the outlook for EUR/USD remain the same.
Last week correction wasnt able to break throught the 61.8% fibonacci correction.
I suggest to sell at
EP = 1.3235 SL = 1.3400 TP = 1.2905 TS = 150
EUR/JYP
The COT report suggest a flat market. Base on fundamental analysis, EUR is suffering from the worst economic crisis. And highly possible that ECB would cut rates. I suggest wait for clearer signal of down trend...
GBP/USD
The COT suggest a bearish structure on this pairing. But fundamentally, GBP does not have a bearish outlook.
Techincally:
A flat could be forming in the D1 chart. i suggest wait for a clearer sign before entering this pair.
If a 5 wave downtrend is building up, wait for the correction of the 2nd wave before selling this pair...
GBP/JYP
Had build up a triangle formation:
This is the one hour chart. The triangle formation was from after ytd flat movement.
Currently it looks like going to a downtrend.
I suggest:
Sell stop:
EP = 147.77 SL = 148.55 TS = 80 TP = 142.92 (fibonacci correction of 61.8)
Long Short
JYP 54,7% GBP 69.65%
EUR 51%
NZD 80.1%
AUD 68.4%
USD 81.3%
Looking for :
EUR/USD bearish
GBP/USD strong bearish
AUD/USD bearish
NZD/USD Flat
EUR/JYP Flat
GBP/JYP bearish
USD/JYP bullish
EUR/USD
Base on the market sentiment from the COT report, we are looking at a bearish outlook for EUR.
For this week, the major news that would impact this currency pair are:
- Release of the result for the Bank stress test
- looks goods but personally i feel there must be a reason for delaying the release of the report.
- Tue May 5 GMT 1400 USD ISM Non-manufacturing Composite
- Increase ...
- Thu May 7 GMT 1145 EUR ECB rate decision
- there could be a interest rate cut to 1%
- Fri May 8 GMT 1230 USD Non-farm payroll
- expect to be better then last month
In terms of Fundamental analysis, the outlook of USD is bullish and due to the interest rate cut, EUR is in line of a bearish outlook.
In terms of techinical analysis, the outlook for EUR/USD remain the same.
Last week correction wasnt able to break throught the 61.8% fibonacci correction.
I suggest to sell at
EP = 1.3235 SL = 1.3400 TP = 1.2905 TS = 150
EUR/JYP
The COT report suggest a flat market. Base on fundamental analysis, EUR is suffering from the worst economic crisis. And highly possible that ECB would cut rates. I suggest wait for clearer signal of down trend...
GBP/USD
The COT suggest a bearish structure on this pairing. But fundamentally, GBP does not have a bearish outlook.
Techincally:
A flat could be forming in the D1 chart. i suggest wait for a clearer sign before entering this pair.
If a 5 wave downtrend is building up, wait for the correction of the 2nd wave before selling this pair...
GBP/JYP
Had build up a triangle formation:
This is the one hour chart. The triangle formation was from after ytd flat movement.
Currently it looks like going to a downtrend.
I suggest:
Sell stop:
EP = 147.77 SL = 148.55 TS = 80 TP = 142.92 (fibonacci correction of 61.8)
Sunday, May 3, 2009
Big events next week
TUE May 5th GMT 430 Expected Previous
AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision 3.00% 3.00%
Wed May 6th GMT 2245 Expected Previous
NZD Unemployment Rate 5.3% 4.7%
Thu May 7th Expected Previous
GMT 1100 GBP Bank of england Rate Decision 0.5% 0.5%
GMT 1145 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.00% 1.25%
GMT 1230 USD Non-farm Productivity 0.9% -0.4%
Fri May 8th
GMT 1230 USD Change in NonFarm Payroll -620k -660k
GMT 1230 USD Unemployment Rate 8.9% 8.5%
AUD Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision 3.00% 3.00%
Wed May 6th GMT 2245 Expected Previous
NZD Unemployment Rate 5.3% 4.7%
Thu May 7th Expected Previous
GMT 1100 GBP Bank of england Rate Decision 0.5% 0.5%
GMT 1145 EUR ECB Rate Decision 1.00% 1.25%
GMT 1230 USD Non-farm Productivity 0.9% -0.4%
Fri May 8th
GMT 1230 USD Change in NonFarm Payroll -620k -660k
GMT 1230 USD Unemployment Rate 8.9% 8.5%
Saturday, May 2, 2009
COT STATUS as of 28/04/09
We can somehow get the market sentiment throught the COT report.
BRITISH POUND STERLING - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-096742
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 04/28/09 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF GBP 62,500) OPEN INTEREST: 84,760
COMMITMENTS
17,702 40,615 8 55,752 23,022 73,462 63,645 11,298 21,115
CHANGES FROM 04/21/09 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 1,381)
2,088 841 -27 -239 -802 1,822 12 -441 1,369
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
20.9 47.9 0.0 65.8 27.2 86.7 75.1 13.3 24.9
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 56)
12 21 1 15 15 28 36
The market favors Short in GBP:
Non-Commercial standing .. 17,702 long - 40,615 short = 22,913 short
Percent of 40,615/(17,702+40,615) = 69.65% short
JAPANESE YEN - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-097741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 04/28/09 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF JPY 12,500,000) OPEN INTEREST: 75,734
COMMITMENTS
22,162 26,741 239 36,138 28,240 58,539 55,220 17,195 20,514
CHANGES FROM 04/21/09 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 1,519)
3,819 -5,297 25 -3,891 8,233 -47 2,961 1,566 -1,442
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
29.3 35.3 0.3 47.7 37.3 77.3 72.9 22.7 27.1
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 69)
19 26 7 17 16 42 43
The market favors Long in JYP:
Non-Commercial standing .. 22,162 long - 26,741 short = 4579 short
Percent of 26,741/(22,162+26,741) = 54.7% long
EURO FX - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-099741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 04/28/09 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF EUR 125,000) OPEN INTEREST: 108,592
COMMITMENTS
30,292 32,365 256 43,424 41,730 73,972 74,351 34,620 34,241
CHANGES FROM 04/21/09 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 1,913)
584 4,254 -378 1,850 -4,379 2,056 -503 -143 2,416
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
27.9 29.8 0.2 40.0 38.4 68.1 68.5 31.9 31.5
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 98)
34 29 7 21 24 58 57
The market favors Long in EURO:
Non-Commercial standing .. 30,292long - 32,365 short = 1694 long
Percent of 32,365/(30,292+32,365) = 51% long
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-112741The market favors short in NZD:
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 04/28/09 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF NZD 100,000) OPEN INTEREST: 14,095
COMMITMENTS
4,855 1,207 0 7,800 11,299 12,655 12,506 1,440 1,589
CHANGES FROM 04/21/09 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 252)
317 174 0 -361 169 -44 343 296 -91
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
34.4 8.6 0.0 55.3 80.2 89.8 88.7 10.2 11.3
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 22)
8 3 0 6 6 14 9
Non-Commercial standing .. 4,855 long - 1,207 short = 3648 long
Percent of 4,855/(4,855+1,207) = 80.1% long
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-232741
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 04/28/09 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(CONTRACTS OF AUD 100,000) OPEN INTEREST: 69,683
COMMITMENTS
25,748 9,056 82 24,159 52,272 49,989 61,410 19,694 8,273
CHANGES FROM 04/21/09 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: 115)
-92 466 -57 1,076 340 927 749 -812 -634
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
37.0 13.0 0.1 34.7 75.0 71.7 88.1 28.3 11.9
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 50)
21 8 2 12 13 34 22
The market favors short in AUD:
Non-Commercial standing .. 25,748 long - 9,056 short = 16,692 long
Percent of 52,272/(24,159+52,272) = 68.4% long
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX - ICE FUTURES U.S. Code-098662The market favors short in USD:
FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 04/28/09 |
--------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
--------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(U.S. DOLLAR INDEX X $1000) OPEN INTEREST: 22,223
COMMITMENTS
11,700 2,694 2,013 6,791 14,869 20,504 19,576 1,719 2,647
CHANGES FROM 04/21/09 (CHANGE IN OPEN INTEREST: -1,108)
-1,601 -51 -77 1,341 -1,292 -337 -1,420 -771 312
PERCENT OF OPEN INTEREST FOR EACH CATEGORY OF TRADERS
52.6 12.1 9.1 30.6 66.9 92.3 88.1 7.7 11.9
NUMBER OF TRADERS IN EACH CATEGORY (TOTAL TRADERS: 55)
25 19 5 8 5 34 28
Non-Commercial standing .. 11,700 long - 2,694 short = 9006 long
Percent of 11,700/(11,700+2,694) = 81.3% long
Monday, April 27, 2009
Current standing using fibonacci
EUR/USD
Sell!
EP=1.3171 (i should have hope the entry of 1.3200)
SL=1.3151 (break even with a confirm 20pips profit)
TS = 160 (changed my TS because last night had a movement of ard 160pips)
TP = 1.2500 (Forming a triangle on weekly chart)
Currently support level of EUR/USD is 1.2985. Breaking through this barrier, there will be a high possibly to hit the last bottom on 20/04/09 of 1.2890. And further break through 1.2890, it will go closer to the 1.2500 point, as the 3th Elliott wave will be taking shape.
EUR/JYP
Sell!
EP= 128.05
I admit that i am taking a chance on the fundamental analysis which support higher JYP and lower EUR. In terms of fibonacci, it had hit the 38.2% correction (4th wave), therefore i am hoping that this would be the 5th wave.
SL = 127.66 (break even with a confirm 39pips profit)
TS = 250
TP = 122.05 (wave 5 = wave 1 = around 600pips)
The 122.05 is a very safe point to take profit considering 2 points:
This should be the 5th wave downtrend, the movement should be around 600pips similar to 1st wave .
2nd point, if this 5 wave downtrend is a correction for the up trend starting at 112.06 (21/01/09) to 137.40 (06/04/09), the 61.8% correction should be the 121.13 point.
Therefore i can assume that 122.05 is a very safe point for TP.
I AM starting to love EUR/JYP pair, High pips movement, low spread of 4pips and cheaper swap rate!!!!!
NZD/USD
Sell!
EP = 0.5662 (should have enter at 0.5700)
SL = 0.5629 (break even with confirm profit of 33pips)
TS = 85pips change to 120pips
TP = 0.5062
After the correction on 24/04/09 at 0.5716 (close to 61.8%), it looks like the pair is going on a 3th wave downtrend. I am hoping that it would not be a flat market as www.dailyfx.com had predicted yesterday. Breaking through the 0.5486 point will bring the momentum further to my target 0.5062. This point will complete the 335 Elliott wave flat formation (very obvious on the weekly chart).
The only risk to look out for is the RBNZ interest rate decision on April 29. If the interest rate cut is lesser then the expected 50bp, this could cause a rally in NZD/USD.
AUD/USD
Sell!
EP = 0.7197 (0.7200 would be the ideal position haha)
SL = 0.7113 (break even with confirm profit of 84pips)
TS = 100pips change to 130pips
TP = 0.6647
Sell!
EP=1.3171 (i should have hope the entry of 1.3200)
SL=1.3151 (break even with a confirm 20pips profit)
TS = 160 (changed my TS because last night had a movement of ard 160pips)
TP = 1.2500 (Forming a triangle on weekly chart)
Currently support level of EUR/USD is 1.2985. Breaking through this barrier, there will be a high possibly to hit the last bottom on 20/04/09 of 1.2890. And further break through 1.2890, it will go closer to the 1.2500 point, as the 3th Elliott wave will be taking shape.
EUR/JYP
Sell!
EP= 128.05
I admit that i am taking a chance on the fundamental analysis which support higher JYP and lower EUR. In terms of fibonacci, it had hit the 38.2% correction (4th wave), therefore i am hoping that this would be the 5th wave.
SL = 127.66 (break even with a confirm 39pips profit)
TS = 250
TP = 122.05 (wave 5 = wave 1 = around 600pips)
The 122.05 is a very safe point to take profit considering 2 points:
This should be the 5th wave downtrend, the movement should be around 600pips similar to 1st wave .
2nd point, if this 5 wave downtrend is a correction for the up trend starting at 112.06 (21/01/09) to 137.40 (06/04/09), the 61.8% correction should be the 121.13 point.
Therefore i can assume that 122.05 is a very safe point for TP.
I AM starting to love EUR/JYP pair, High pips movement, low spread of 4pips and cheaper swap rate!!!!!
NZD/USD
Sell!
EP = 0.5662 (should have enter at 0.5700)
SL = 0.5629 (break even with confirm profit of 33pips)
TS = 85pips change to 120pips
TP = 0.5062
After the correction on 24/04/09 at 0.5716 (close to 61.8%), it looks like the pair is going on a 3th wave downtrend. I am hoping that it would not be a flat market as www.dailyfx.com had predicted yesterday. Breaking through the 0.5486 point will bring the momentum further to my target 0.5062. This point will complete the 335 Elliott wave flat formation (very obvious on the weekly chart).
The only risk to look out for is the RBNZ interest rate decision on April 29. If the interest rate cut is lesser then the expected 50bp, this could cause a rally in NZD/USD.
AUD/USD
Sell!
EP = 0.7197 (0.7200 would be the ideal position haha)
SL = 0.7113 (break even with confirm profit of 84pips)
TS = 100pips change to 130pips
TP = 0.6647
I had a really hard time deciding to enter this trade. The correction for the point from 0.7326 (April 13) to 0.6951 was close to the 78.6% at 0.7237. From the looks of it, a downtrend triangle is forming. if there is a breakout at 0.6950 the chances of hitting the TP of 0.6647 would be high. As there is a possibility that AUD/USD is moving back the the support level of around 0.6500
GBP/JYP
Sell!
EP = 140.71 (should be 141.21 on he 1H chart made this mistake cause i was looking at the 4H chart)
SL = 142.21
TS = 150
TP = 131.55
Take a look at the daily chart :
Looking at the 1Day chart, we can see that there is a very obvious breakout from the trendline form starting from Jan 23th to March 30th.
Base on the breakout, there could be a correction for the uptrend starting from Jan 23th 118.80 to April 6th 151.50. Base on this assumption, i put my TP at the 61.8 correction 131.55 point.
(Update) Just break even on this trade...
Changeing my TS = 200pips since i am aiming for 900pips profit
Out of my 5 trade, 4 had break even and had a confirm profit.
GBP/JYP
Sell!
EP = 140.71 (should be 141.21 on he 1H chart made this mistake cause i was looking at the 4H chart)
SL = 142.21
TS = 150
TP = 131.55
Take a look at the daily chart :
Looking at the 1Day chart, we can see that there is a very obvious breakout from the trendline form starting from Jan 23th to March 30th.
Base on the breakout, there could be a correction for the uptrend starting from Jan 23th 118.80 to April 6th 151.50. Base on this assumption, i put my TP at the 61.8 correction 131.55 point.
(Update) Just break even on this trade...
Changeing my TS = 200pips since i am aiming for 900pips profit
Out of my 5 trade, 4 had break even and had a confirm profit.
Sunday, April 26, 2009
Selling NZD/USD base on RBNZ interest rate decision
We can look for a short position on NZD/USD base on 2 reason
In techinical analysis, we can see that NZD/USD had a correction between the 61.8% and 50% fibonacci correction!
On fundamental analysis, NZD is going to have a rate decision next week. The RBNZD is expected to cut its interest rate by 50bp from 3.00% to 2.50%. In addition, New Zealand credit card spending falls at record-pace in March.
Accordingly, dovish commentary following the rate decision could spark a sell-off in the kiwi-dollar but nevertheless, as risk trends continue to dictate price action in the financial markets, the G7 and the G20 meeting in Washington D.C. may help to boost market sentiment as global policymakers tackle the downturn in the world economy, and increased demands for higher risk/reward investments could the currency pair higher over the following week.
I suggest 2 ways of entering this trade:
Risk taker:
Put a Sell limit pending order on the 61.8% fibonacci correction
EP = 0.5760 SL = 0.5880 TP = 0.5213(fibonacci gain of 100%) or 0.5043(fibonacci gain of 161.8%) TS = 100 - 200pips
Confirm downtrend:
Put a Sell Stop pending order below the 50% fibonacci correction
EP = 0.5700 SL = 0.5880 TP = 0.5213(fibonacci gain of 100%) or 0.5043(fibonacci gain of 161.8%) TS = 150 - 200pips
The first idea take more risk as it could turn into a uptrend, but you would have a addition 60pips gain. Personally i prefer the 2nd idea. Enter late Exit early.
This would be a great chance to trade since we will be riding the 3th eillot wave downtrend.
In techinical analysis, we can see that NZD/USD had a correction between the 61.8% and 50% fibonacci correction!
On fundamental analysis, NZD is going to have a rate decision next week. The RBNZD is expected to cut its interest rate by 50bp from 3.00% to 2.50%. In addition, New Zealand credit card spending falls at record-pace in March.
Accordingly, dovish commentary following the rate decision could spark a sell-off in the kiwi-dollar but nevertheless, as risk trends continue to dictate price action in the financial markets, the G7 and the G20 meeting in Washington D.C. may help to boost market sentiment as global policymakers tackle the downturn in the world economy, and increased demands for higher risk/reward investments could the currency pair higher over the following week.
I suggest 2 ways of entering this trade:
Risk taker:
Put a Sell limit pending order on the 61.8% fibonacci correction
EP = 0.5760 SL = 0.5880 TP = 0.5213(fibonacci gain of 100%) or 0.5043(fibonacci gain of 161.8%) TS = 100 - 200pips
Confirm downtrend:
Put a Sell Stop pending order below the 50% fibonacci correction
EP = 0.5700 SL = 0.5880 TP = 0.5213(fibonacci gain of 100%) or 0.5043(fibonacci gain of 161.8%) TS = 150 - 200pips
The first idea take more risk as it could turn into a uptrend, but you would have a addition 60pips gain. Personally i prefer the 2nd idea. Enter late Exit early.
This would be a great chance to trade since we will be riding the 3th eillot wave downtrend.
Thursday, April 23, 2009
Recommended Sell short position on AUD/USD
Looking at the AUZ/USD chart:
I suggest a sell short position base on 2 factors:
Looking at this 1H chart i could see a downtrend triangle formation.
In addition, base on fibonacci correction, the pair had a correction of 50% (2nd wave) in place.In order to confirm a downtrend breakout, i suggest to place a sell Stop position on the 38.2% correction position.
If a downtrend breakout is in place, this could be a start of the 3wave down.
Sell stop
EP=0.7090 SL= 0.7140 (50pips) TP= 0.6723 (3th wave 161.8%) SL=50(at the start)- 150(after break even)
This is the only consideration, AUD and NZD have similar correlations in movement, NZD had hit its 38.2% correction 2times! The downtrend in AUD could trigger NZD downtrend, similarity if NZD go deeper into correction, AUD could go into a further correction of 61.8%.
I suggest a sell short position base on 2 factors:
Looking at this 1H chart i could see a downtrend triangle formation.
In addition, base on fibonacci correction, the pair had a correction of 50% (2nd wave) in place.In order to confirm a downtrend breakout, i suggest to place a sell Stop position on the 38.2% correction position.
If a downtrend breakout is in place, this could be a start of the 3wave down.
Sell stop
EP=0.7090 SL= 0.7140 (50pips) TP= 0.6723 (3th wave 161.8%) SL=50(at the start)- 150(after break even)
This is the only consideration, AUD and NZD have similar correlations in movement, NZD had hit its 38.2% correction 2times! The downtrend in AUD could trigger NZD downtrend, similarity if NZD go deeper into correction, AUD could go into a further correction of 61.8%.
Pair relationship
After analysing the currency market for the pass 4 months i realize that there are similar relationships between certain currency pairs.
For example, these pass few days the currency pairs EUR/USD and EUR/JYP seem to behave in a similar movement. The downtrend movement, correction, and also the formation of triangle breakout.
Even thought the correction wasnt simliar in terms of fibonacci 61.8% or 50% correction but, it the movement is similar.
I am still looking into the relationship, things like determining the TP SL maybe interrelated.
This forex mountain is really difficult to climb but its my dream my ideal dream in my life so i going to pursult no matter what, and climb this damm mountain till i die !!!!!
For example, these pass few days the currency pairs EUR/USD and EUR/JYP seem to behave in a similar movement. The downtrend movement, correction, and also the formation of triangle breakout.
Even thought the correction wasnt simliar in terms of fibonacci 61.8% or 50% correction but, it the movement is similar.
I am still looking into the relationship, things like determining the TP SL maybe interrelated.
This forex mountain is really difficult to climb but its my dream my ideal dream in my life so i going to pursult no matter what, and climb this damm mountain till i die !!!!!
Correction of EUR/USD
EUR/USD seem to be in a uptrend
This could be a correction of the 1st wave from the downtrend starting from 14/04/09 to 20/04/09. The 1H EMA and Parabolic show uptrend, 4H Parabolic Uptrend
Targeting the take profit from the 3th wave by selling at this position
EP= 1.3200 - 13165 SL = 1.3305 TP = 1.2765 TS = 120-150pips
This could be a correction of the 1st wave from the downtrend starting from 14/04/09 to 20/04/09. The 1H EMA and Parabolic show uptrend, 4H Parabolic Uptrend
Targeting the take profit from the 3th wave by selling at this position
EP= 1.3200 - 13165 SL = 1.3305 TP = 1.2765 TS = 120-150pips
Testing triangle on EUR/JYP
EUR/JYP
is going a correction from the gain 14/04/09 to 20/04/09
For this downtrend, the correction had been 50% fibonacci, traders can take this chance to trade this shorting chance at
Sell
EP= 130.16 SL = 131.50 TP=124.50
If you want to trade the correction, there seems to be a breakout in triangle formation
Buy
EP = 128.15 SL=126.80 (in case of a reverse breakout) TP=130.14
1H EMA and Parabolic show uptrend , 4H Parabolic show uptrend
is going a correction from the gain 14/04/09 to 20/04/09
For this downtrend, the correction had been 50% fibonacci, traders can take this chance to trade this shorting chance at
Sell
EP= 130.16 SL = 131.50 TP=124.50
If you want to trade the correction, there seems to be a breakout in triangle formation
Buy
EP = 128.15 SL=126.80 (in case of a reverse breakout) TP=130.14
1H EMA and Parabolic show uptrend , 4H Parabolic show uptrend
Sunday, April 19, 2009
EUR/JYP breaking trendline, correction from Jan gain?
EUR/JYP pairing had been going on a up trend for the pass few months.
(starting on 21/01/09)
Last friday, it has finially break throught the uptrend trendline.
This signify a downtrend break through, and a possiblibly that this could be a correction from the gain starting on Jan.
Base on the fibonacci golden rule of 61.8%, the correction target should be around the range of 121.83 +/- 200pips.
EUR/USD breaking triangel formation forming Downtrend
For technical analysis,
This is the daily chart of EUR/USD.
We can see a downtrend because of 3 factor.
First, it can be seen clearly that a triangle formation is form. The 5 wave triangle touches 3 time top and 3 time bottom of the triangle.
Last Friday this triangle formation was broken and it clearly show a downtrend direction.
Secondly, the overall picture currently the trend is going on a 5th downtrend wave base on Elliot wave. If they trend is really going on a downtrend 5th wave, there is a possibility of going further below
Thirdly, on weekly base chart, we can see another bigger triangle formation is forming. Currently going on a downtrend direction towards point 5.
Those who had not anticipate this movement, you could place a entry after the correction of 31.8% at 1.3157 or place a sell entry on 1.3000 to confirm the downtrend. I believe the target take profit should be 1.2644 and below.
On fundamental analysis,
- ECB members spilts on how to proceed after rates hit 1.00 percent.
(This shows a chance that there could be a interest rate cut)
- Euro Zone inflation hit a record low - the support for holding the rates up is fading
- Euro break below 1.31 as the dollar flexs its fundamental muscle
This is the daily chart of EUR/USD.
We can see a downtrend because of 3 factor.
First, it can be seen clearly that a triangle formation is form. The 5 wave triangle touches 3 time top and 3 time bottom of the triangle.
Last Friday this triangle formation was broken and it clearly show a downtrend direction.
Secondly, the overall picture currently the trend is going on a 5th downtrend wave base on Elliot wave. If they trend is really going on a downtrend 5th wave, there is a possibility of going further below
Thirdly, on weekly base chart, we can see another bigger triangle formation is forming. Currently going on a downtrend direction towards point 5.
Those who had not anticipate this movement, you could place a entry after the correction of 31.8% at 1.3157 or place a sell entry on 1.3000 to confirm the downtrend. I believe the target take profit should be 1.2644 and below.
On fundamental analysis,
- ECB members spilts on how to proceed after rates hit 1.00 percent.
(This shows a chance that there could be a interest rate cut)
- Euro Zone inflation hit a record low - the support for holding the rates up is fading
- Euro break below 1.31 as the dollar flexs its fundamental muscle
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
USD/JYP
I open a sell trade on USD/JYP at EP = 99.15 SL=100.15 TP= 97.15.
I am trying to ride on the 5wave of a small decine on USD/JYP.
I am trying to ride on the 5wave of a small decine on USD/JYP.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
NZD/USD and AUD/USD
This two currency pairs had broken the uptrend momentum, and seem to be going on a downtrend momentum.
I suggest to wait for the 535 formation to be created before entering into NZD/USD.
Or maybe a fibonacci pull back of 31.8%.
I had put a sell limit on NZD/USD EP=0.5814 SL= 0.5930 (Retracement of more then 78.6%)
As for AUD/USD i am still waiting for a much more clearer sign of a downtrend.
I suggest to wait for the 535 formation to be created before entering into NZD/USD.
Or maybe a fibonacci pull back of 31.8%.
I had put a sell limit on NZD/USD EP=0.5814 SL= 0.5930 (Retracement of more then 78.6%)
As for AUD/USD i am still waiting for a much more clearer sign of a downtrend.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
13th April - 17th April Weekly Strategy
Hi guys,
This is the 2nd week that i post my weeky strategy. I hope more and more people will visit my blog and support me. AND remember click on the advertisement thanks
USD had a bullish fundamental outlook this week. Most of the majors are still leaning on the USD favour. This past week, the FOMC minutes referred to credit conditions as “very tight” and suggested financial markets were “fragile and unsettled” as pressure was intensifying. Banks are refusing to open credit lines as they attempt to bolster reserves as defaults rise, earnings drop and growth naturally leads demand to dry up. This means the potential for another crisis and panic exodus of capital from the market is a constant threat. As long as there are a potential risk of another crisis.As long as the market’s fear the possibility of another crisis, the dollar will be coveted for its deeply liquid markets and the aggressive actions of the US government.
EUR had a bearish fundamental outlook this week. Euro zone are still showing weakness by looking at the upcoming bearish forecast of EURO report. If the economical reports show weaker then expected result, it may link to another interest rate cut in the ECB.
JYP fundamental outlook for this week is incline towards bullish. For the pass week japan economical development had little effect on USD/JYP price. It had been holding the price near 101 mark. Futhermore this week the risky report on US economical report, signal a highly possible decline on USD/JYP.
GBP had a bearish fundamental outlook for this week. Last week Bank of England retain the record low interest rate of 0.5%. From an event risk perspective, there will be very little news on the wires to shake up the UK’s national currency. On Tuesday night at 19:01 ET, the RICS house price balance is forecasted to show that 77 percent of home surveyors saw a decline in prices during March, down from 78 percent in February. On Wednesday at 19:01 ET, the BRC retail sales monitor is likely to show persistently weak consumption on a same-store sales basis as the UK recession continues to put pressure on nearly every aspect of the economy.
AUD had a bearish fundamental outlook. RBA had cut the interest rate by 0.25% to 3.00%. Futhermore the Australian unemployment rate had spike to a 6 year high of 5.7%. Looking at AUD/USD from a technical perspective, the pair has been holding below the October 14, 2008, January, and April highs near 0.7230-0.7270, and a failure at these levels would indicate a triple top. However, if risk appetite continues to improve, AUD/USD could break clear above noted resistance to target the 200 SMA at 0.7373.
NZD had a bearish fundamental outlook. The first quarter business sentiment ticks to a 34year low. Taking stock of the New Zealand economy and benchmark lending rate, the outlook is dim. The local recession is deepening as the collapse in domestic demand fails to fill in the massive gap left by a growing trade gap. A round of economic date will add to the outlook with a forecasted drop in retail sales and discouraging prognosis for the business PMI activity gauge. Every piece of data that pushes the nation deeper into recession will bring it closer to the downgrade in sovereign debt rating that Standard and Poor’s has warned. The other notable influence next week’s round of data will have is on interest rate expectations. RBNZ Governor has suggested his pace of rate cuts going forward would be less aggressive. However, a bleak outlook from the economy could easily force his hand. Should the CPI release due at the end of the week cool more quickly than forecasted, it would remove a significant obstacle to far lower rates.
This is the 2nd week that i post my weeky strategy. I hope more and more people will visit my blog and support me. AND remember click on the advertisement thanks
USD had a bullish fundamental outlook this week. Most of the majors are still leaning on the USD favour. This past week, the FOMC minutes referred to credit conditions as “very tight” and suggested financial markets were “fragile and unsettled” as pressure was intensifying. Banks are refusing to open credit lines as they attempt to bolster reserves as defaults rise, earnings drop and growth naturally leads demand to dry up. This means the potential for another crisis and panic exodus of capital from the market is a constant threat. As long as there are a potential risk of another crisis.As long as the market’s fear the possibility of another crisis, the dollar will be coveted for its deeply liquid markets and the aggressive actions of the US government.
EUR had a bearish fundamental outlook this week. Euro zone are still showing weakness by looking at the upcoming bearish forecast of EURO report. If the economical reports show weaker then expected result, it may link to another interest rate cut in the ECB.
JYP fundamental outlook for this week is incline towards bullish. For the pass week japan economical development had little effect on USD/JYP price. It had been holding the price near 101 mark. Futhermore this week the risky report on US economical report, signal a highly possible decline on USD/JYP.
GBP had a bearish fundamental outlook for this week. Last week Bank of England retain the record low interest rate of 0.5%. From an event risk perspective, there will be very little news on the wires to shake up the UK’s national currency. On Tuesday night at 19:01 ET, the RICS house price balance is forecasted to show that 77 percent of home surveyors saw a decline in prices during March, down from 78 percent in February. On Wednesday at 19:01 ET, the BRC retail sales monitor is likely to show persistently weak consumption on a same-store sales basis as the UK recession continues to put pressure on nearly every aspect of the economy.
AUD had a bearish fundamental outlook. RBA had cut the interest rate by 0.25% to 3.00%. Futhermore the Australian unemployment rate had spike to a 6 year high of 5.7%. Looking at AUD/USD from a technical perspective, the pair has been holding below the October 14, 2008, January, and April highs near 0.7230-0.7270, and a failure at these levels would indicate a triple top. However, if risk appetite continues to improve, AUD/USD could break clear above noted resistance to target the 200 SMA at 0.7373.
NZD had a bearish fundamental outlook. The first quarter business sentiment ticks to a 34year low. Taking stock of the New Zealand economy and benchmark lending rate, the outlook is dim. The local recession is deepening as the collapse in domestic demand fails to fill in the massive gap left by a growing trade gap. A round of economic date will add to the outlook with a forecasted drop in retail sales and discouraging prognosis for the business PMI activity gauge. Every piece of data that pushes the nation deeper into recession will bring it closer to the downgrade in sovereign debt rating that Standard and Poor’s has warned. The other notable influence next week’s round of data will have is on interest rate expectations. RBNZ Governor has suggested his pace of rate cuts going forward would be less aggressive. However, a bleak outlook from the economy could easily force his hand. Should the CPI release due at the end of the week cool more quickly than forecasted, it would remove a significant obstacle to far lower rates.
Upcoming reports to take note for next week
Important Reports to take note for next week:
For USD:
Most of expect numbers in the reports are lower then last month reports
For EUR:
From the expected result, Euro economy are still looking gloomy...
For USD:
| Tue Apr 14 1230GMT | ||
| USD Advance Retail Sales (MAR) | Expected(0.3%) | Previous(-0.1%) |
| USD Retail Sales less Autos (MAR) | Expected(0.1%) | Previous(0.7%) |
| USD Producer Price Index (MoM)(MAR) | Expected(0.0%) | Previous(0.1%) |
| USD Producer Price Index (YoY)(MAR) | Expected(-2.0%) | Previous(-1.3%) |
| USD Producer Price Index Ex Food | Expected(0.1%) | Previous(0.2%) |
| USD Producer Price Index Ex Food Energy (MoM)(MAR) | Expected(0.1%) | Previous(0.2%) |
| USD Producer Price Index Ex Food Energy (YoY)(MAR) | Expected(4.0%) | Previous(4.0%) |
| Wed Apr 15 0900GMT | ||
| USD Consumer Price Index (MoM)(MAR) | Expected(0.1%) | Previous(0.4%) |
| USD Consumer Price Index (YoY)(MAR) | Expected(0.0%) | Previous(0.2%) |
| USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food Energy (MoM)(MAR) | Expected(0.1%) | Previous(0.2%) |
| USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food Energy (YoY)(MAR) | Expected(1.7%) | Previous(1.8%) |
For EUR:
| Thurs Apr 16 0900GMT | ||
| EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM)(MAR) | Expected(0.4%) | Previous(0.4%) |
| EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY)(MAR) | Expected(0.6%) | Previous(0.6%) |
| EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Core Price Index (YoY)(MAR) | Expected(1.4%) | Previous(1.7%) |
| EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a (MoM)(FEB) | Expected(-2.5%) | Previous(-3.5%) |
| EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a(YoY)(FEB) | Expected(-18.0%) | Previous(-17.3%) |
Tuesday, April 7, 2009
GBP/USD:Trading the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision
On Thur 9th April 11:00GTM, Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision.
It is expected that the Bank of England would hold the benchmark interest rate at the record low of 0.5% in order to steer the economy out of a deepening recession.
The Q4 GDP reading show that the economy contracted more then the expected figures, as a result the central bank expect Q1 for 2009 should be simillar.
For the past interest rate decision, the average pips movement is around 100pips. Target a 100pips profit and stop lost of 50pips.
If the flat market movement is more then 50pips, i advise not to trade.
It is expected that the Bank of England would hold the benchmark interest rate at the record low of 0.5% in order to steer the economy out of a deepening recession.
The Q4 GDP reading show that the economy contracted more then the expected figures, as a result the central bank expect Q1 for 2009 should be simillar.
For the past interest rate decision, the average pips movement is around 100pips. Target a 100pips profit and stop lost of 50pips.
If the flat market movement is more then 50pips, i advise not to trade.
Pips or CASH?
What is pips?
For those who are clueless about forex, pips is the points earn in forex. Why it is so important to earn hundred or even thousand pips?
I could earn 1000 usd in 1000pips, i also can earn the same amount with 10pips, then why not 10pips instead of 1000pips which is not easy to achieve. Earn 10pips will take seconds, losing 10pips will also take a few second. Lesser pips you target for, the more risk you are expose to.
In order to manage your risk, your stop lost must be large.
There are 3 types of trading.
- long term (days, weeks and more)
- middle term (hours, maybe day)
- short term (seconds, minutes)
Personally i regard short term as gambling, and yes i do use short term trading.
Short term trading are trades to do with economic reports, US Non farm payroll, interest rate decision.. many more.
It is a good way to jack up quick cash, but honestly the risk is high. Very vulnerable to spike data (recently alot of speculation spike). I actually suffer alot doing this. You need very strong trading psychology, as you will just lose 5% of your capital in a few second, which took you a few day to earn in long term trade. Those who are not strong willed enough will result in "REVENGE" trading.
I advise start small in short term trading, once you got the hang of it then start increasing your lot size.
As for middle and long terms, those trades will be aiming for hundred and thousand of pips.
The strategy used are normally Trend trading and Resistance Support.
If you are a investor and you want to be successful, first you must be able to achieve a consistent earning pips, then you think about earning the real cash.
For those who are clueless about forex, pips is the points earn in forex. Why it is so important to earn hundred or even thousand pips?
I could earn 1000 usd in 1000pips, i also can earn the same amount with 10pips, then why not 10pips instead of 1000pips which is not easy to achieve. Earn 10pips will take seconds, losing 10pips will also take a few second. Lesser pips you target for, the more risk you are expose to.
In order to manage your risk, your stop lost must be large.
There are 3 types of trading.
- long term (days, weeks and more)
- middle term (hours, maybe day)
- short term (seconds, minutes)
Personally i regard short term as gambling, and yes i do use short term trading.
Short term trading are trades to do with economic reports, US Non farm payroll, interest rate decision.. many more.
It is a good way to jack up quick cash, but honestly the risk is high. Very vulnerable to spike data (recently alot of speculation spike). I actually suffer alot doing this. You need very strong trading psychology, as you will just lose 5% of your capital in a few second, which took you a few day to earn in long term trade. Those who are not strong willed enough will result in "REVENGE" trading.
I advise start small in short term trading, once you got the hang of it then start increasing your lot size.
As for middle and long terms, those trades will be aiming for hundred and thousand of pips.
The strategy used are normally Trend trading and Resistance Support.
If you are a investor and you want to be successful, first you must be able to achieve a consistent earning pips, then you think about earning the real cash.
Sunday, April 5, 2009
Weekly strategy and ideas..
Hi guys, i will be trying to post on every week trading opportunity and ideas. I hope some people would put some comment and discuss on it.
Basically i play 7 major currency: AUD NZD JYP GBP EUR USD CHF(seldom touch)
I will be discussing on the movement of each currency and my view of its trend for the week.
AUD had been going up trend for the pass 1 month. Currently the short term trend is looking at a bullish direction if it break the 0.7272 which is the highest point that AUD had gone up on Jan after the economical downturn.
But if it doesn't break that barrier, it could be a starting of a downtrend which would be similar on Jan til Feb.
The focus will be on the RBA interest rate decision on TUE 07/04/09. If you look at Jan data, the downtrend started after 07/01/09. Hmm maybe it is just a coincidence.
Personally i would be more bias toward bearish AUD.
NZD is always simillar to AUD movement. It had been increasing over the pass 5 weeks, furthermore there isnt much economical news on NZD this week.
Meanwhile, a Bloomberg News survey shows that 7 of the 13 economists polled forecast the RBNZ to lower the benchmark interest rate by another 50bp to 2.50%, while the remaining participants are calling for a 25bp rate cut to 2.75%.
I am expect not much movement on NZD or it should somehow follow AZD trend.
There could be some pullback in NZD/USD since it remains overbought.
JYP was the worst performing G10 currency for the pass week's trade. Japan enconomy doesnt look good as japan jobless rate hit 2 year hight, in addition household spending are down for the 11th straight months.
Most likely that Bank of Japan will keep it rate at 0.1% throughtout the year.
But the yen may be vulnerable to a higher technical corrections.
The thing to watch here is the potential impact that the bank’s meeting minutes could have on risk appetite, as indications that BOJ officials have judged that the current economic situation is deteriorating more rapidly than previously anticipated could weigh on the Nikkei, but lift the Japanese yen purely as a result of flight-to-safety.
GBP close last week at 2 months high against USD and 5months high against JYP. But the United Kingdom the worst performing economy in the industrialized world. Furthermore the pass week reports does reflect much of a recovery. In order to see an improvement to the economy and markets, the central bank’s and government’s efforts would be considered a key turn for the better for the pound. Such convictions must also be won by data. The consumer confidence report on Tuesday will gauge the consumer’s contribution to growth. Industrial production and visible trade will gauge the influence of two other major components of GDP
On Thurs 09/04/2009, Bank of England will have an interest rate decision. Even thought currently the interest rate is near zero (0.5%) , it wouldn't be a surprise if there is another interest rate cut. Keep watch on a pullback or bearish GDP this week.
EUR rally with the interest rate decision cut of 25bp which is lower then the expect 50bp. ECB policy officials clearly see the disadvantage of rates near zero, but they are running out of options and time. In his public address, President Trichet suggested the current rate was not necessarily a floor and that the central bank would announce its decision on pursuing unusual policy tools next month. This may include quantitative easing, purchasing additional private debt or any other number of possibilities; but for the euro trader, it will mean conditions in the Euro Zone are just as bad as they are in the United States and United Kingdom. If the upcoming economical data still doesn't show sign of stabilizing, the ECB left with no choice could further cut the interest rate.
In addition EUR wasn't able to make new high, most probability that EUR is still in a bearish condition.
Basically i play 7 major currency: AUD NZD JYP GBP EUR USD CHF(seldom touch)
I will be discussing on the movement of each currency and my view of its trend for the week.
AUD had been going up trend for the pass 1 month. Currently the short term trend is looking at a bullish direction if it break the 0.7272 which is the highest point that AUD had gone up on Jan after the economical downturn.
But if it doesn't break that barrier, it could be a starting of a downtrend which would be similar on Jan til Feb.
The focus will be on the RBA interest rate decision on TUE 07/04/09. If you look at Jan data, the downtrend started after 07/01/09. Hmm maybe it is just a coincidence.
Personally i would be more bias toward bearish AUD.
NZD is always simillar to AUD movement. It had been increasing over the pass 5 weeks, furthermore there isnt much economical news on NZD this week.
Meanwhile, a Bloomberg News survey shows that 7 of the 13 economists polled forecast the RBNZ to lower the benchmark interest rate by another 50bp to 2.50%, while the remaining participants are calling for a 25bp rate cut to 2.75%.
I am expect not much movement on NZD or it should somehow follow AZD trend.
There could be some pullback in NZD/USD since it remains overbought.
JYP was the worst performing G10 currency for the pass week's trade. Japan enconomy doesnt look good as japan jobless rate hit 2 year hight, in addition household spending are down for the 11th straight months.
Most likely that Bank of Japan will keep it rate at 0.1% throughtout the year.
But the yen may be vulnerable to a higher technical corrections.
The thing to watch here is the potential impact that the bank’s meeting minutes could have on risk appetite, as indications that BOJ officials have judged that the current economic situation is deteriorating more rapidly than previously anticipated could weigh on the Nikkei, but lift the Japanese yen purely as a result of flight-to-safety.
GBP close last week at 2 months high against USD and 5months high against JYP. But the United Kingdom the worst performing economy in the industrialized world. Furthermore the pass week reports does reflect much of a recovery. In order to see an improvement to the economy and markets, the central bank’s and government’s efforts would be considered a key turn for the better for the pound. Such convictions must also be won by data. The consumer confidence report on Tuesday will gauge the consumer’s contribution to growth. Industrial production and visible trade will gauge the influence of two other major components of GDP
On Thurs 09/04/2009, Bank of England will have an interest rate decision. Even thought currently the interest rate is near zero (0.5%) , it wouldn't be a surprise if there is another interest rate cut. Keep watch on a pullback or bearish GDP this week.
EUR rally with the interest rate decision cut of 25bp which is lower then the expect 50bp. ECB policy officials clearly see the disadvantage of rates near zero, but they are running out of options and time. In his public address, President Trichet suggested the current rate was not necessarily a floor and that the central bank would announce its decision on pursuing unusual policy tools next month. This may include quantitative easing, purchasing additional private debt or any other number of possibilities; but for the euro trader, it will mean conditions in the Euro Zone are just as bad as they are in the United States and United Kingdom. If the upcoming economical data still doesn't show sign of stabilizing, the ECB left with no choice could further cut the interest rate.
In addition EUR wasn't able to make new high, most probability that EUR is still in a bearish condition.
Saturday, April 4, 2009
TUE 04/07/2009 04:30 GMT RBA Interest Rate Decision
Interest rate decision had been affecting the market movement.
The next RBA interest rate decision will the on TUE 04/07/2009 0430GMT.
Over the pass few week the AUD/USD had be railing up pushing it back to 0.7153.
The AUD/USD could continue its rise if the central bank decided that the interest rate have reach its bottom. Currently the interest rate is at its 45-year low of 3.25%.
In long term expectation, AUD/USD clearly is on a bullish outlook. But if RBA would hold its rate and decided that it reaches its bottom, AUD/USD would break its support line of 0.7272 and continue its rally upwards.
On the other hand, if the economic outlook does look promising, and the trade condition is deteriorating, RBA would cut its interest rate to boost lending rate. High possible of a 25bp or more interest cut.
AUD/USD average pip movement is less then 200pips per day.
I dont expect big movement like 100pips when the news is release. Try to set a profit of around 50pips and 25pips trailing stop. If movement before the news is release is more then 30 pips i advise to not trade this event.
The next RBA interest rate decision will the on TUE 04/07/2009 0430GMT.
Over the pass few week the AUD/USD had be railing up pushing it back to 0.7153.
The AUD/USD could continue its rise if the central bank decided that the interest rate have reach its bottom. Currently the interest rate is at its 45-year low of 3.25%.
In long term expectation, AUD/USD clearly is on a bullish outlook. But if RBA would hold its rate and decided that it reaches its bottom, AUD/USD would break its support line of 0.7272 and continue its rally upwards.
On the other hand, if the economic outlook does look promising, and the trade condition is deteriorating, RBA would cut its interest rate to boost lending rate. High possible of a 25bp or more interest cut.
AUD/USD average pip movement is less then 200pips per day.
I dont expect big movement like 100pips when the news is release. Try to set a profit of around 50pips and 25pips trailing stop. If movement before the news is release is more then 30 pips i advise to not trade this event.
Friday, April 3, 2009
March US Non Farm payroll
US Non farm payroll is one of the most widely anticipated reports on the US economic calendar, the Employment Situation is a timely report that gives a picture of job creation, loss, wages and working hours in the United States. Data in the report relies on the Household Survey and the Establishment (or Payroll) Survey. While the Household Survey is based on the interviews to US households, the Establishment Survey queries business establishments, making it the preferred source of data. The Employment Situation's has many significant figures such as: Change in Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment, Manufacturing Payrolls, and Average Hourly Earnings.
Yesterday the market raily after the G20 meeting and the ECB interest cut. As optimism spread across investor. Honestly i believe it is all these are just speculation, they are trying to make the market move up before the real news the non farm payroll is release.
All eyes are on the Non Farm Payroll, as the reality will sink in since on friday.
In preparation for trading this top event risk, we need to put it into the context of speculation and consider the impact this employment gauge could have in altering expectations for growth in the US compared to its global counterparts. The more important for forex market price action, though, is that fundamental US data does not tend to have a logical impact on the currency. Instead, risk trends remain in the driver’s seat so traders must consider the impact of NFPs on risk appetite. Indeed, if we see that NFPs fall more than expected or the unemployment rate climbs above 8.5 percent, the news could trigger losses in risky assets like stocks, trigger flight-to-safety, and thus, lift the US dollar, especially against high-yielding currencies like the Australian dollar but perhaps even the euro. On the flip side, if job losses and the unemployment rate don’t climb quite as much as anticipated, the news could spark enough optimism to boost demand for stocks and forex carry trades, and subsequently lead the greenback lower.
Yesterday the market raily after the G20 meeting and the ECB interest cut. As optimism spread across investor. Honestly i believe it is all these are just speculation, they are trying to make the market move up before the real news the non farm payroll is release.
All eyes are on the Non Farm Payroll, as the reality will sink in since on friday.
In preparation for trading this top event risk, we need to put it into the context of speculation and consider the impact this employment gauge could have in altering expectations for growth in the US compared to its global counterparts. The more important for forex market price action, though, is that fundamental US data does not tend to have a logical impact on the currency. Instead, risk trends remain in the driver’s seat so traders must consider the impact of NFPs on risk appetite. Indeed, if we see that NFPs fall more than expected or the unemployment rate climbs above 8.5 percent, the news could trigger losses in risky assets like stocks, trigger flight-to-safety, and thus, lift the US dollar, especially against high-yielding currencies like the Australian dollar but perhaps even the euro. On the flip side, if job losses and the unemployment rate don’t climb quite as much as anticipated, the news could spark enough optimism to boost demand for stocks and forex carry trades, and subsequently lead the greenback lower.
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Basic of forex
I believe that the basic in trading forex is all about money management and trading psychology
What is money management?
One of my friend's girlfriend was interested in investing money on me. But she is worry that i will lose all her money. I simply told her that if i keep losing, it will take around 5months for me to ALMOST lose it all.
What i really mean is that i only use a small percent of the capital to trade each time. The way of forex is lose little win big. So with good money management you can keep ur capital safe.
Simply i give a very normal example. Any strategy, no matter what the success rate is, either 80% or even 100%. I will take that all strategies have the success rate of 50%. So every time you click on your trade to sell or buy there will be a 50/50 chance you will win.
If every time you lose you only lose 5%, and when you win you take 10% of your capital. Out of 10 trade, win 5 lose 5, win 50% lose 25%. In the end you still earn a 25% increase in your capital.
In conclusion to be successful in trading, you must be able to manage you capital first.
Next i would like to talk about Trading psychology.
This is the most difficult and simplest skill in trading. Why is it so? Cause it is always easy to say but doing, it is difficult.
FEAR GREED these are the common problem with every trader.
-Fear of losing
-Greed of more profit (using more then 5% of capital)
In addition revenge..
As a trader, you must always have the mindset that you are investing, not gambling. Never think of revenge. A lost is a lost.
Honestly i am still very bad in this area. On feb the trending market fail. I got desperate, i went out to learn other strategy. I think my mindset become gambling instead of invest.
I dont regret it, as lesson learn.
I am still researching of combining technical analysis and fundamental analysis together.
What is money management?
One of my friend's girlfriend was interested in investing money on me. But she is worry that i will lose all her money. I simply told her that if i keep losing, it will take around 5months for me to ALMOST lose it all.
What i really mean is that i only use a small percent of the capital to trade each time. The way of forex is lose little win big. So with good money management you can keep ur capital safe.
Simply i give a very normal example. Any strategy, no matter what the success rate is, either 80% or even 100%. I will take that all strategies have the success rate of 50%. So every time you click on your trade to sell or buy there will be a 50/50 chance you will win.
If every time you lose you only lose 5%, and when you win you take 10% of your capital. Out of 10 trade, win 5 lose 5, win 50% lose 25%. In the end you still earn a 25% increase in your capital.
In conclusion to be successful in trading, you must be able to manage you capital first.
Next i would like to talk about Trading psychology.
This is the most difficult and simplest skill in trading. Why is it so? Cause it is always easy to say but doing, it is difficult.
FEAR GREED these are the common problem with every trader.
-Fear of losing
-Greed of more profit (using more then 5% of capital)
In addition revenge..
As a trader, you must always have the mindset that you are investing, not gambling. Never think of revenge. A lost is a lost.
Honestly i am still very bad in this area. On feb the trending market fail. I got desperate, i went out to learn other strategy. I think my mindset become gambling instead of invest.
I dont regret it, as lesson learn.
I am still researching of combining technical analysis and fundamental analysis together.
Wednesday, April 1, 2009
Feb lost
Even since the start of the economic crisis on 2008 jun July, a obvious downward trend had been carrying everyone til 2009 Jan.
I believe it had been easy to trade forex for this period as obvious trend is spotted easily.
On Fed, the market condition changes, as a result technical analysis does not work. Personally i lost around 1.5k USD.
Tuesday, March 31, 2009
What is forex
Forex is basically know as foreign exhange market. It is the trading of currency pairs. For example you can buy a currency pair like USD/JYP if you favour USD or sell if you are against USD. Simply the basic knowledge is buy low sell high vis versa.
Forex trading is actually quite new to the public. Intially it was not traded by the public because 100K USD is required in order to trade 1 lot in forex. Therefore it is normally traded by banks.
The introduction of margin(leavage) made it possible for the public to trade forex. For example a margin of 1:100 meaning you can use 1k USD to trade 100K USD of currency.
To most people, trading forex is known as the most dangerous and risky investment. Why is it so? Because in forex, using margin you dont have the holding power.
Forex trading is actually quite new to the public. Intially it was not traded by the public because 100K USD is required in order to trade 1 lot in forex. Therefore it is normally traded by banks.
The introduction of margin(leavage) made it possible for the public to trade forex. For example a margin of 1:100 meaning you can use 1k USD to trade 100K USD of currency.
To most people, trading forex is known as the most dangerous and risky investment. Why is it so? Because in forex, using margin you dont have the holding power.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Hi my name is kel
Hi, my name is Kelvin.
I started forex in 2008 nov/dec. During that period, I was working as a intern business analyst in JPMorgan.
Due to the econmical downturn, i couldnt find a job after my internship therefore i started full time in trading forex on 2009 Jan.
I had took up a forex course. The course teaches trend trading and some of the basic in forex.
On jan, trend trading had been very successful. With only a capital of USD 5K, i earn a total of USD 4k in Jan. Unexpectly, trending trading had fail badly for the pass 2 month, feb and march.
I lost a total of 1.5k on FEB. Therefore i decided that i should enrich myself with more forex knowledge.
Currently i am trying to survive on the month of march. I made a total of 6k and lost a total of 4k as i tried number of new strategies.
I will be posting all my P/L here, and also put my thoughts and comment on each trade and month.
I started forex in 2008 nov/dec. During that period, I was working as a intern business analyst in JPMorgan.
Due to the econmical downturn, i couldnt find a job after my internship therefore i started full time in trading forex on 2009 Jan.
I had took up a forex course. The course teaches trend trading and some of the basic in forex.
On jan, trend trading had been very successful. With only a capital of USD 5K, i earn a total of USD 4k in Jan. Unexpectly, trending trading had fail badly for the pass 2 month, feb and march.
I lost a total of 1.5k on FEB. Therefore i decided that i should enrich myself with more forex knowledge.
Currently i am trying to survive on the month of march. I made a total of 6k and lost a total of 4k as i tried number of new strategies.
I will be posting all my P/L here, and also put my thoughts and comment on each trade and month.
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